hi donald，我只是從一個投資者的角度去思考，為什麼大部份的食品相關股的毛利率都不過30%，最好的都只是3成多的毛利率，但為什麼上星期5大跌的904、經常集資的682及這隻上市不久的829，毛利率可以去到6成？當中竅妙在哪裡？是不是它們的資金投入鉅？還是投入巨資作研究之用，以致產品的毛利率可以比其它公司高？又或者有專利或壟斷式經營的保護，以致產品可以善價而沽？
hi 希仔，我相信膠原蛋白腸衣不是什麼高科技或專利產品的，在網上也可以輕易找到其它公司報價，而829亦稱自己是中國最大的膠原蛋白腸衣生產商，亦即是有其它公司有生產。既然不是獨家、也不是專利，而業務的利潤又那麼高的話，為什麼其它公司不加入？ 根據經濟學入門所說，一種利潤超高的產品，如果沒有entry barrier的話，會有越來越多公司加入，直至此產品的利潤回落至正常水平為止，最簡單的例子莫過於早年的VCD機，由於早期的需求大、利潤高，故一間又一間的公司不斷加入生產，而至產能過剩，然後又一間一間地倒閉.....
hi DTLK, 此網誌的留言系統有時候有問題，留言後會被自動刪除，我也不明為何。 至於寶源投資持有此股，無疑令此股的安全系數提高一些，但不要忘記當VP之前也不斷買賣福建民企或疑似老千股、DAVID WEBB也曾中招，以至我當年背棄一貫的選股法則，持有泰興光學，全因四大基金皆持有此股，所以我覺得風險甚低.....結果全數變牆紙！從此之後我不會再因為基金持有某股，而背棄自己的選股法則。
hi fourwong, 現在仍在公司工作，尚未有空看258的業績，等看完後再寫篇短評，不過未必今晚可以寫好，只因今晚要先談談458及531。
hi DTLK, 不要太勞氣。我相信你未曾買過爆煲股，所以不會有我的體會。我曾經中過招，買泰興光學全數變牆紙，但不論大股東或核數師，原來全數不用負上刑責，亦見不到有人被罰；買946還不知道可以拿回多少錢，一隻上市3個月的新股原來做假數，証監都是要等人告發才知，你就知道香港的監管制度是多麼的寬鬆、荒謬，難怪大鱷喜歡在香港“搵食”。
I'm also working in the finance sector, so I have some idea about the issue between Macquarie, BBG ,Deloitte and Mr. Nick Ng. What happen is shortly after the failure of listing, Macquarie requested to redeem the pre-IPO investment, Deloitte resigned as auditors and Mr. Nick Ng left the company.
I think the problem is not the due-diligence or audit work. The problem is the business model. If you invest in any company involving a distributing channel, u'll have the same problem. What does it mean distributing channel, it means your product is selling to distributor, not end user, such as coke cola selling to supermarket. So, can u tell the identity of every distributor, are they absolutely not a related party, how can u tell? U can check it through legal search, interview, but how can you know that the distributor is not control by someone, which in turn control by another one. I can tell u that, even in those listed company, it happen. So,if you don't trust this model, don't invest in most of the retail company listed, unless they run their own stores. That means you have no need to read the news of most of the retail companies any more.
Due-diligence is not a god-process, it can only tell most of the things are not wrong, or there are no concrete evidences that the things are wrong. Everyone can make a wrong decision, a wrong investment, so as Macquarie, Deloitte and Mr. Nick Ng. Same as anyone reading this forum, did u make a wrong decision before? One wrong decision doesn't need to put them into hell.
If your focus are Macquarie, Deloitte and Mr. Ng, and never invest in those companies that are related to them, seems the logic is not sound enough. Focus on the fundamental.
BTW, regarding why Shenguan only call it is the largest manufacturer in China, It's very normal, even actually it's the only one. Because when u write the prospectus, u need to provide evidence, it's very difficult to prove something is unique, because u need to prove 100%, absolutely, not relatively. If you have some reading on other research report, u'll know that there are only 2 very small companies trying to "develope" the same product now. On the other hand, the technology are also patented as well. That means you can develope this product, but don't use the same production technolgy.
I don't know whether Shenguan will long lasting or just another story, but at least at this moment, nothing seems wrong. The question for u are: 1. If a company earn too much, the finance will be artificial and why it need to be listed and share the success with the public? 2. If a company is only normal, it's not attractive enough? 3. If a company earn only a little, who will invest?
Most of you question regarding Shenguan can be answered by some research report, or if you are really interested, go and web-surfing. e.g, I have also doubt on how many collagen casing players are there globally, and i search, there are many companies selling collagen casings, but please note that, they are reselling, not manufacturing!! After further study, I can only identify another 3 big players. Maybe there are other small players, I don't know, but it seems that there must be some entry barrier to keep so small amount of industry players, so I further study and get the answer.
Thanks for your clarification, why i react to these posts is because i make some wrong decisions during the crisis and lose my job, fortunately someone give me a chance so that i can keep in this sector. So I wish ppl can give chance to someone make a mistake as well, unless they keep making it.
Regarding the reason why Shenguan is listed, some information to share is: Shenguan's machine are highly tailor-made, with very limited resell value, if not together with the technology. It can't be use as a pledge for bank loans, and most of Shenguan's cash is spent on machinery, so when the company keep growing, it will be more and more difficult to obtain financing from bank, especially those PRC banks, which normally request for pledge or a listed company status. It's quite funny in the PRC, bank only finance those companies have no need to finance!
So Shenguan has only 2 way to exit, either go public or looking for some private equity. Honestly, PE is not a good solution if you can go public, because....PE never lose, they will request for a lot of protection, the worst case is... your company will be fully control by them eventually. So, I think Shenguan make a good move to the public, but maybe it can choose a better sponsor. Why? I'm not saying Macquarie is bad, but the pricing at H$3.1 is absolutely undervalue and during the IPO, the media exposure is not enough as well, that's why at the very beginning, nobody has idea about collagen casing. But the good is...many ppl earn a lot via the IPO, haha.
偉哥你意思是質疑神冠盤數?
回覆刪除神棍集團, 好!!! 哈哈 ~~!!
回覆刪除偉哥, (0331.hk)幫忙研究吓,指點吓小弟
回覆刪除hi donald，我只是從一個投資者的角度去思考，為什麼大部份的食品相關股的毛利率都不過30%，最好的都只是3成多的毛利率，但為什麼上星期5大跌的904、經常集資的682及這隻上市不久的829，毛利率可以去到6成？當中竅妙在哪裡？是不是它們的資金投入鉅？還是投入巨資作研究之用，以致產品的毛利率可以比其它公司高？又或者有專利或壟斷式經營的保護，以致產品可以善價而沽？
回覆刪除我找不到答案。
hi 匿名者，其實不用我指點，相信你應該明白市場的普遍看法是高增長、高估值；低增長、低估值。你覺得331過去兩次業績，盈利增長是否高？能否支持其超過20倍市盈率的估值？如果還沒有頭緒的話，最簡單的莫過於看看內幕人士(大股東、董事、管理層)的舉動，看看他們是在買還是賣：
回覆刪除聯交所資料顯示，春天百貨<00331.HK>執行董事陳漢傑於6月30日，在場外以每股2.45元，減持近6548萬股至39.57%。(sz/w)
不是說跟內幕人士買賣一定對，但如果自己沒有頭緒的話，不妨參考內幕人士的買賣，有時有意想不到的收穫。
偉哥,其實我一直都留意829並打算買入.我也發現其節節上升的毛利率令人又驚又喜. 我試著找答案.
回覆刪除首先,829所造的膠原蛋白腸衣是非常獨特的行業和技術, 甚至連生產的技術也没有書,理論可以跟隨,在中國,可以說是獨門技術.
第二,其價格較外國巨頭平,可能是因為原料和員工的成本.
暫時,我認為829高毛利的原因是技術的獨特和大量生產致成本平. 如果以食品股而言,829的確奇怪,但如果以壟斷或獨特技術的角度,則不太有問題.
我還在學習階段,如果有錯,不妨直言.偉哥,以你的經驗, 你點睇? 謝謝.
伟哥，912最近跌得好多, 如欲長線持,於甚麼價位買入才值博率高?
回覆刪除還用懷疑嗎? 神冠盤數有很大的水份的. 簡單啲講, 即係像忠旺及超大般造假數囉!!!
回覆刪除hi 希仔，我相信膠原蛋白腸衣不是什麼高科技或專利產品的，在網上也可以輕易找到其它公司報價，而829亦稱自己是中國最大的膠原蛋白腸衣生產商，亦即是有其它公司有生產。既然不是獨家、也不是專利，而業務的利潤又那麼高的話，為什麼其它公司不加入？ 根據經濟學入門所說，一種利潤超高的產品，如果沒有entry barrier的話，會有越來越多公司加入，直至此產品的利潤回落至正常水平為止，最簡單的例子莫過於早年的VCD機，由於早期的需求大、利潤高，故一間又一間的公司不斷加入生產，而至產能過剩，然後又一間一間地倒閉.....
回覆刪除912之前10送1紅股，故此股價表面上比起高位好似回落很多，但實際上現價等同除淨前的1.9左右，比起高位只有約一成多的調整，還沒到買入位。自己覺得最少要跌到1.5才值得撈底。
回覆刪除3339 偉哥點睇?
回覆刪除偉哥 458點睇?
回覆刪除上午有朋友留言，但不知為何系統又自動刪除，故我重新刊登：
回覆刪除829由IPO至現在我都有跟進!詳情見本人的POSThttp://finance.discuss.com.hk/viewthread.php?tid=10783217&extra=&page=1
首先,要駁斥一點..除非做假賬,否則829的營利數字水份絕對低!因既無重估投資值!單純營業收入減生產成本!就是如此!
設備使用率長期是85--90%!基本上間工廠係每日24小時運作無停
無錯有其他工廠生產膠原腸衣,但神冠現市佔率約8-9成!
的確可能有好多方法從件牛二層皮提取膠原做膠原腸衣!但神冠的方法是具國家專利保護!詳情可去國家專利網站找到
神冠IPO時PE15倍.3.10IPO即每股賺0.206....2009年神冠每股賺RMB0.25,約HKD0.285....主要係生產線由約60條增加至108條.....生產線於2010年會由108條增加至166條,至今已完成148條
高毛利率會引至競爭者加入是肯定,腸衣市場現是供不應求階段,行業仍在高增長.除非出現根本性改變,如有新競爭者有新方法生產更平膠原腸衣....否則,增長勢頭不變!!! 面對行業巨人,小工廠可以生存,如打減價戰則未必能與巨人持久.
我喜歡您的網站,因多看事實多過傳聞!
829的管理層特別係周董畢生鑽研膠原腸衣,取得成功!至今管理層都算誠信,起碼未有配售行動(將來唔知)
就IPO至今所見,所得金額都是按招股書所列用於擴產.
公司淨現金RMB9億6...有足夠能力擴產及收購(每條生產線成本約RMB8百萬)...
今次業績有HKD0.06中期息,派息率39%,算OK!
總括而言,神冠有其獨特性!如能多了解就不至於誤解!
(PS: 本人已持股)
458剛公佈的業績其實一般, 如果可以的話，今晚連同531寫篇業績短評。目前我打算繼續持有458。
回覆刪除3339業績很好，即使扣除特殊收益，半年每股盈利都接近0.44港元，兼且派息0.1元及1送1紅股，今日升幅如此少，自己都有些意外。唯一要小心的是上半年經營現金流竟然是負數。
hi DTLK，謝謝關於829的寶貴意見。你的意見中有一點非常認同，就是上市接近一年，829尚未有任何集資活動，這點是比較正面的。
回覆刪除但坦白說，即使你有充份的理由去解釋829的毛利率及純利率為何如此之高，自己仍然非常有戒心，除了超高的毛利率之外，尚有一個原因：其財務總監吳先生在加盟829之前是高寶綠色的附屬公司真優美的財務總監，這履歷吳先生在829的招股書中刻意隱瞞，予人此地無銀三百兩的感覺。至於高寶綠色、真優美是什麼公司，我相信大家都應該知道，恕不多解釋。
異於尋常的高毛利率，再加上現任財務總監以前在老X公司擔任財務總監，令人不得不謹慎。
偉兄，有冇研究過 (0179.hk)?? 上年熱炒, 主席不停增持再增持!!!
回覆刪除今早我還以為留言不成功!
回覆刪除多謝偉哥指出財務總監一事!這點我倒不知道!!要多加留意!
市場對829業績正面!今天更逆市創新高8.32!
要注意一點是寶源投資除了IPO時做機構投資者外,亦係上市第一天以平均價約4.4增持3000多萬股,成億銀!持股超過5%!至今一股未沽!有寶源雷總代做DEAL DELIGENCE,該有一些保障!!
分析股票難免步入自圓其說的局面,所以我睇股票好簡單,我只會諗有乜理由我唔買入一支股票,當我揾唔到理由時,就是值得詳細分析.
回覆刪除現在分析829.
pb8,好高.
pe唔知真唔真,如果係真,2010全年pe都十幾.唔算平.
息率低.
上市時間太短....
香港上市公司有一千幾百間,呢類股票可以睇少隻.
偉哥,其實我想問你點睇258份業績,盈利使唔使等到2010全年先反映?
hi chcowboy, 179目前估值尚未算便宜，可以再等等。
回覆刪除hi DTLK, 此網誌的留言系統有時候有問題，留言後會被自動刪除，我也不明為何。
至於寶源投資持有此股，無疑令此股的安全系數提高一些，但不要忘記當VP之前也不斷買賣福建民企或疑似老千股、DAVID WEBB也曾中招，以至我當年背棄一貫的選股法則，持有泰興光學，全因四大基金皆持有此股，所以我覺得風險甚低.....結果全數變牆紙！從此之後我不會再因為基金持有某股，而背棄自己的選股法則。
hi fourwong, 現在仍在公司工作，尚未有空看258的業績，等看完後再寫篇短評，不過未必今晚可以寫好，只因今晚要先談談458及531。
作者已經移除這則留言。
回覆刪除順帶一提,中人壽都係基礎投資人!!本人已持股,加上由IPO至今一直增持及一直跟蹤公司資料及營運狀況,對此股有一定認知,甚至天真一些有點感情!!
回覆刪除所有股票,要搵一個或以上唔買既理由有幾難!
內銀集資潮兼地方融資問題,地方政府可能唔認數!
內房阿爺打完一鑊又一鑊,永無出頭天!
加工廠仲斃,人工上,原料上,死路一條!
資源股,仲死,開採完就得個桔,資產值係零!
科技股無運行,今日高科技,明日流流地!
平就好咩,今日平明天更平既大把!
如果懷疑香港上市公司公報既料係流既,0甘就咩股都唔使買啦!
我的選股心得就是將唔輸的機率減低.所以當我睇少隻股就唔代表該股唔好,可以代表我唔想博,可以代表我睇錯的.
回覆刪除買賣股票"唔輸"就會贏.
每個投資人都有他的選股票方法,其實我都想你賺錢.
hi DTLK, 不要太勞氣。我相信你未曾買過爆煲股，所以不會有我的體會。我曾經中過招，買泰興光學全數變牆紙，但不論大股東或核數師，原來全數不用負上刑責，亦見不到有人被罰；買946還不知道可以拿回多少錢，一隻上市3個月的新股原來做假數，証監都是要等人告發才知，你就知道香港的監管制度是多麼的寬鬆、荒謬，難怪大鱷喜歡在香港“搵食”。
回覆刪除我不是說所有上市公司的帳目都不可信，但一間上市公司的CFO上一份工原來是擔任老X公司的CFO，還差些成功上市，哪叫我如何可以相信該公司？
投資路上每個人都有不同的看法是必然的，所以大家各自表達完觀點就算，不是一定要對方相信你的觀點是正確，正如此時此刻有不少人相信682是好公司，但有更多的人相信682是造假一樣，不用爭論太多，相信的話可以真金白銀買，不信的話可以忽略不理，反正市場上又不是只得682一間公司。829亦一樣，我不相信但你相信，其實沒有衝突，我等散戶的言論根本不會影響到股價分毫。你可以從中獲取巨利固然可喜，我亦沒有損失，大家可以按自己的方法在市場賺錢。
共勉之。
多謝偉哥提及關於大型基金持股參考一事!股票市場及每間公司都極複雜!好多因素係分析時是被忽略了或之後有變!大型基金亦不是長勝的!最近例子就係澳優1717,富達大師安東尼搬埋黎香港都中招,不斷增持...佢地無錯知道內需股正,但唔知道內地人已開始唔買中國制奶...話知您奶源係外地0Y!!
回覆刪除查實829真係好特別!分析829好簡單!因為:
1)不用擔心銷量,因供不應求關係,基本上佢造幾多賣幾多!
2)腸衣市價平穩,約RMB0.45一米,大部分合約年頭已簽好!
3)大型客戶如雙匯雨潤對品質衛生很高要求,生產一米香腸最大成本係肉及漆加劑,腸衣的RMB0.45只佔好小比例!所以需求彈性極低!要CUT成本有排都未到腸衣!
4)原料牛二層皮用途窄,買家少,價格亦穩定!牛主有人要佢D牛2皮,等於垃圾賣倒錢!開心還來不及,那敢加價!
所以估計神棍業績好簡單,睇下佢有幾多條生產線運作,產能幾多就大概知佢賺幾多!但增加的生產線於每年不同時間啟用,所以估計有點靠估!要多留意日常有關報導!不過,829香港就無人悉,係廣西梧州係響噹噹名字,故梧州日報及梧州電視常有關於829的報導!
根據今年中期報導集團腸衣的總銷售量為10.51億米====>每股賺RMB0.1339!148(至今已完成,至2010年底會有18條新做好,全部166條)條生產線全面運作產能約33億米====>估每股全年賺RMB0.42(約HKD0.48)!打個斷估折扣當HKD0.45!幾多倍PE,PEG就由市場決定!
以上方法真係流於簡單白痴,但我就用這方法估中期業績每股賺HKD0.185(實際係HKD0.153)及派息至少HKD0.054(實際係HKD0.06)!
148條生產線就33億米,0甘166條自己賺下......
比起分析其他公司,又要睇市場變化又要睇原料價格又要睇政策或收購合併新項目,829真係來得簡單!
註:以上分析單純老散斷估!個人已IPO持股及4.10;4.7增持!買賣風險自負!
偉哥,我都中過355...又話核能核原料,百分比及絕對值輸到pk...最近隻1717又high,今天cut loss.幸好風險控制好,大圍無事!我不勞氣,只是不應以偏概全!
回覆刪除謝謝!
455 偉哥點睇?
回覆刪除Japanese starts to control share of 829....
回覆刪除455的往績及基本因素達不到自己的要求，故不在觀察名單內，因此認識不多，無法給予意見。
回覆刪除有人指出，上市大約一年沒有減持股票及發行新股，但根據上市條例，上市一年內不能減持股權至低於控股權比例，又或是發行新股集資。
回覆刪除hi greatsoup, 新股上市後半年，大股東是可以減持套現，但是要維持控股股東地位。
回覆刪除大家好，因為在下持有神冠不小的數目，看完各位的討論後，便請Macquarie的服務人員聯繫位於上海的分析師詢問相關問題。 我想...大家可能有點誤會了。 經查證，當初Nick Ng擔任真優美的CFO，是因為Macquarie的PE group有真優美的持股，故派任Nick Ng進駐。Nick Ng並不是高寶綠色的人，也沒經手高寶綠色相關事項，而是Macquarie派來的人。 而這次Nick Ng進駐神冠也是Macquarie的佈局...所以問題並不在Nick Ng這個人身上，請大家參考。
回覆刪除hi 匿名者，謝謝查證及釋疑，我相信此查證會令很多有貨在手的安心好多。
回覆刪除如果朋友可以與麥佳理的職員聯繫，其實我有一個問題很想請求代問：在安排真優美上市的“長期”過程中，既然麥格理安排吳先生進駐並擔任CFO，不知道有沒有察覺高寶綠色或者真優美的帳目有沒有問題？其職責是協助“美化”真優美的帳目，還是以投資者代理人的角色，監察真優美的帳目？
這是我作為小散戶想知道的問題，如果可以代問，感激不盡。
這個是小弟的錯誤，對不起，不過我是指「不能減持股權至低於控股權比例，又或是發行新股集資」，不是減持股票呢。
回覆刪除這條條例是出於據上市條例第10章7.01及7.02條。
http://www.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/20090930/00829_644311/C116.pdf
回覆刪除另外，根據招股書，麥格里是在神冠沒有持股，為何要佈局?
麥格里是神冠的保薦人。
回覆刪除I'm also working in the finance sector, so I have some idea about the issue between Macquarie, BBG ,Deloitte and Mr. Nick Ng. What happen is shortly after the failure of listing, Macquarie requested to redeem the pre-IPO investment, Deloitte resigned as auditors and Mr. Nick Ng left the company.
回覆刪除I think the problem is not the due-diligence or audit work. The problem is the business model. If you invest in any company involving a distributing channel, u'll have the same problem. What does it mean distributing channel, it means your product is selling to distributor, not end user, such as coke cola selling to supermarket. So, can u tell the identity of every distributor, are they absolutely not a related party, how can u tell? U can check it through legal search, interview, but how can you know that the distributor is not control by someone, which in turn control by another one. I can tell u that, even in those listed company, it happen. So,if you don't trust this model, don't invest in most of the retail company listed, unless they run their own stores. That means you have no need to read the news of most of the retail companies any more.
Due-diligence is not a god-process, it can only tell most of the things are not wrong, or there are no concrete evidences that the things are wrong. Everyone can make a wrong decision, a wrong investment, so as Macquarie, Deloitte and Mr. Nick Ng. Same as anyone reading this forum, did u make a wrong decision before? One wrong decision doesn't need to put them into hell.
If your focus are Macquarie, Deloitte and Mr. Ng, and never invest in those companies that are related to them, seems the logic is not sound enough. Focus on the fundamental.
BTW, regarding why Shenguan only call it is the largest manufacturer in China, It's very normal, even actually it's the only one. Because when u write the prospectus, u need to provide evidence, it's very difficult to prove something is unique, because u need to prove 100%, absolutely, not relatively. If you have some reading on other research report, u'll know that there are only 2 very small companies trying to "develope" the same product now. On the other hand, the technology are also patented as well. That means you can develope this product, but don't use the same production technolgy.
回覆刪除I don't know whether Shenguan will long lasting or just another story, but at least at this moment, nothing seems wrong. The question for u are:
1. If a company earn too much, the finance will be artificial and why it need to be listed and share the success with the public?
2. If a company is only normal, it's not attractive enough?
3. If a company earn only a little, who will invest?
Most of you question regarding Shenguan can be answered by some research report, or if you are really interested, go and web-surfing. e.g, I have also doubt on how many collagen casing players are there globally, and i search, there are many companies selling collagen casings, but please note that, they are reselling, not manufacturing!! After further study, I can only identify another 3 big players. Maybe there are other small players, I don't know, but it seems that there must be some entry barrier to keep so small amount of industry players, so I further study and get the answer.
謝謝非常詳細、深入的意見，獲益良多，或許這就是專業人士與我這業餘投資者的分別。
回覆刪除其實身邊有不少朋友都在四大行任職，或多或少都知道核數師的工作並不能確保完全無誤，因為有些公司有心出古惑的話，即使盡職的核數師都會被蒙在鼓裡，所以朋友忠告我買股除了參考會計報表之外，亦要自己思考實際情況是否合理及考慮其它細微因素。
至於針對麥格理、吳生及德勤，其實得知吳生是麥格理有關連的，我已不再針對個人，只是針對麥格理。或許你覺得我有些小題大做，但如細心回顧麥格理過去一年多擔大旗做的ipo，大部份都有問題，或曾被質疑帳目有問題的，包括敏華(01999)、旭光(00067)、及上市半年即發盈警的勝利管道(01080)，以至兩度上市不成功的真優美等，實在不能不令人帶有色眼鏡觀之。
至於829上市原因，自己都有少少疑問，其實其未上市之前的負債比率都不高，完全可以透過融資方式及本身龐大的營運現金流解決資金需求，不明白為何要在業務高速增長時上市，將努力的成果與他人分享。
無論如何都好，此股的討論可以帶出很多平時在網上找不到的資料及各位個人對此股的研究，實在是意想不到的收穫。相信此令持有此股或有興趣投資此股的人仕，更加了解此股，亦達到自己“拋磚引玉”的目的。
希望下次寫一些有爭論性的股票，也可以達到此效果。
Thanks for your clarification, why i react to these posts is because i make some wrong decisions during the crisis and lose my job, fortunately someone give me a chance so that i can keep in this sector. So I wish ppl can give chance to someone make a mistake as well, unless they keep making it.
回覆刪除Regarding the reason why Shenguan is listed, some information to share is:
Shenguan's machine are highly tailor-made, with very limited resell value, if not together with the technology. It can't be use as a pledge for bank loans, and most of Shenguan's cash is spent on machinery, so when the company keep growing, it will be more and more difficult to obtain financing from bank, especially those PRC banks, which normally request for pledge or a listed company status. It's quite funny in the PRC, bank only finance those companies have no need to finance!
So Shenguan has only 2 way to exit, either go public or looking for some private equity. Honestly, PE is not a good solution if you can go public, because....PE never lose, they will request for a lot of protection, the worst case is... your company will be fully control by them eventually. So, I think Shenguan make a good move to the public, but maybe it can choose a better sponsor. Why? I'm not saying Macquarie is bad, but the pricing at H$3.1 is absolutely undervalue and during the IPO, the media exposure is not enough as well, that's why at the very beginning, nobody has idea about collagen casing. But the good is...many ppl earn a lot via the IPO, haha.
hi 匿名者，再一次謝謝你的分享，獲益良多，亦希望多些網友會看到這難得的行內人分享.....更希望的是日後可以繼續看到你與我們分享對不同投資題材、股票的看法。
回覆刪除P.S.當時神冠上市自己亦賺了一筆快錢。
4 years after the previous message, 829 already "burst"?
回覆刪除Just a busybody, does DTWATCHES.COM still hold its shares?
神冠的業績應該是有水份，但不至於全盤假數，也因此如果復牌後股價暴挫，可能有撈底的價值。
刪除哈哈, 睇番四年前嘅野確有趣, 嗰位dtwatches係我朋友. 四年嘅佢無變而偉哥就變得更精靈.
刪除我諗落都同意。
刪除其實我比較注重現金流，因為佢比較真實。
佢唔似773咁樣用accounts receivable造靚個net profit而令到operating cash flow一年負過一年。
而神冠嘅net profit有operating cash flow撐住係冇咁假，扣埋CAPEX出來嘅free cash flow又靚靚仔仔。
如果個pricing太假而造靚個profit margin，但冇收咁多錢就唔會入operating cash flow啦。Am I correct？
請指教！
其實從現金流及派息比率睇到神冠盤數即使有水份的話，也假唔晒的，撈底有值博率。
刪除