tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3301536840960275863.post7356092643398479284..comments2024-03-24T23:08:33.909+08:00Comments on 偉哥投資手札: 神冠集團....偉哥http://www.blogger.com/profile/08277235755471085935noreply@blogger.comBlogger45125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3301536840960275863.post-49906442767870415522014-09-06T00:22:51.331+08:002014-09-06T00:22:51.331+08:00其實從現金流及派息比率睇到神冠盤數即使有水份的話,也假唔晒的,撈底有值博率。其實從現金流及派息比率睇到神冠盤數即使有水份的話,也假唔晒的,撈底有值博率。偉哥https://www.blogger.com/profile/08277235755471085935noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3301536840960275863.post-56063634520680390592014-09-05T14:48:35.233+08:002014-09-05T14:48:35.233+08:00我諗落都同意。
其實我比較注重現金流,因為佢比較真實。
佢唔似773咁樣用accounts rec...我諗落都同意。<br />其實我比較注重現金流,因為佢比較真實。<br /><br />佢唔似773咁樣用accounts receivable造靚個net profit而令到operating cash flow一年負過一年。<br /><br />而神冠嘅net profit有operating cash flow撐住係冇咁假,扣埋CAPEX出來嘅free cash flow又靚靚仔仔。<br /><br />如果個pricing太假而造靚個profit margin,但冇收咁多錢就唔會入operating cash flow啦。Am I correct?<br /><br />請指教!Ryanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01729931081081815389noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3301536840960275863.post-92227188670170942872014-09-04T13:18:04.111+08:002014-09-04T13:18:04.111+08:00哈哈, 睇番四年前嘅野確有趣, 嗰位dtwatches係我朋友. 四年嘅佢無變而偉哥就變得更精靈.哈哈, 睇番四年前嘅野確有趣, 嗰位dtwatches係我朋友. 四年嘅佢無變而偉哥就變得更精靈.derekhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08542926274863234960noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3301536840960275863.post-30723630691188490582014-09-04T12:48:01.702+08:002014-09-04T12:48:01.702+08:00神冠的業績應該是有水份,但不至於全盤假數,也因此如果復牌後股價暴挫,可能有撈底的價值。神冠的業績應該是有水份,但不至於全盤假數,也因此如果復牌後股價暴挫,可能有撈底的價值。偉哥https://www.blogger.com/profile/08277235755471085935noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3301536840960275863.post-80921501360969027022014-09-03T23:49:18.114+08:002014-09-03T23:49:18.114+08:004 years after the previous message, 829 already &q...4 years after the previous message, 829 already "burst"?<br />Just a busybody, does DTWATCHES.COM still hold its shares?Ryanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01729931081081815389noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3301536840960275863.post-48859191848753467872010-09-30T00:12:40.768+08:002010-09-30T00:12:40.768+08:00hi 匿名者,再一次謝謝你的分享,獲益良多,亦希望多些網友會看到這難得的行內人分享.....更希望的...hi 匿名者,再一次謝謝你的分享,獲益良多,亦希望多些網友會看到這難得的行內人分享.....更希望的是日後可以繼續看到你與我們分享對不同投資題材、股票的看法。<br /><br />P.S.當時神冠上市自己亦賺了一筆快錢。偉哥https://www.blogger.com/profile/08277235755471085935noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3301536840960275863.post-59834653722435739222010-09-29T13:17:21.109+08:002010-09-29T13:17:21.109+08:00Thanks for your clarification, why i react to thes...Thanks for your clarification, why i react to these posts is because i make some wrong decisions during the crisis and lose my job, fortunately someone give me a chance so that i can keep in this sector. So I wish ppl can give chance to someone make a mistake as well, unless they keep making it.<br /><br />Regarding the reason why Shenguan is listed, some information to share is:<br />Shenguan's machine are highly tailor-made, with very limited resell value, if not together with the technology. It can't be use as a pledge for bank loans, and most of Shenguan's cash is spent on machinery, so when the company keep growing, it will be more and more difficult to obtain financing from bank, especially those PRC banks, which normally request for pledge or a listed company status. It's quite funny in the PRC, bank only finance those companies have no need to finance! <br /><br />So Shenguan has only 2 way to exit, either go public or looking for some private equity. Honestly, PE is not a good solution if you can go public, because....PE never lose, they will request for a lot of protection, the worst case is... your company will be fully control by them eventually. So, I think Shenguan make a good move to the public, but maybe it can choose a better sponsor. Why? I'm not saying Macquarie is bad, but the pricing at H$3.1 is absolutely undervalue and during the IPO, the media exposure is not enough as well, that's why at the very beginning, nobody has idea about collagen casing. But the good is...many ppl earn a lot via the IPO, haha.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3301536840960275863.post-14204287493637282292010-09-29T12:42:11.877+08:002010-09-29T12:42:11.877+08:00謝謝非常詳細、深入的意見,獲益良多,或許這就是專業人士與我這業餘投資者的分別。
其實身邊有不少朋友...謝謝非常詳細、深入的意見,獲益良多,或許這就是專業人士與我這業餘投資者的分別。<br /><br />其實身邊有不少朋友都在四大行任職,或多或少都知道核數師的工作並不能確保完全無誤,因為有些公司有心出古惑的話,即使盡職的核數師都會被蒙在鼓裡,所以朋友忠告我買股除了參考會計報表之外,亦要自己思考實際情況是否合理及考慮其它細微因素。<br /><br />至於針對麥格理、吳生及德勤,其實得知吳生是麥格理有關連的,我已不再針對個人,只是針對麥格理。或許你覺得我有些小題大做,但如細心回顧麥格理過去一年多擔大旗做的ipo,大部份都有問題,或曾被質疑帳目有問題的,包括敏華(01999)、旭光(00067)、及上市半年即發盈警的勝利管道(01080),以至兩度上市不成功的真優美等,實在不能不令人帶有色眼鏡觀之。<br /><br />至於829上市原因,自己都有少少疑問,其實其未上市之前的負債比率都不高,完全可以透過融資方式及本身龐大的營運現金流解決資金需求,不明白為何要在業務高速增長時上市,將努力的成果與他人分享。<br /><br />無論如何都好,此股的討論可以帶出很多平時在網上找不到的資料及各位個人對此股的研究,實在是意想不到的收穫。相信此令持有此股或有興趣投資此股的人仕,更加了解此股,亦達到自己“拋磚引玉”的目的。<br /><br />希望下次寫一些有爭論性的股票,也可以達到此效果。偉哥https://www.blogger.com/profile/08277235755471085935noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3301536840960275863.post-196884468039499662010-09-29T11:39:05.345+08:002010-09-29T11:39:05.345+08:00BTW, regarding why Shenguan only call it is the la...BTW, regarding why Shenguan only call it is the largest manufacturer in China, It's very normal, even actually it's the only one. Because when u write the prospectus, u need to provide evidence, it's very difficult to prove something is unique, because u need to prove 100%, absolutely, not relatively. If you have some reading on other research report, u'll know that there are only 2 very small companies trying to "develope" the same product now. On the other hand, the technology are also patented as well. That means you can develope this product, but don't use the same production technolgy. <br /><br />I don't know whether Shenguan will long lasting or just another story, but at least at this moment, nothing seems wrong. The question for u are:<br />1. If a company earn too much, the finance will be artificial and why it need to be listed and share the success with the public? <br />2. If a company is only normal, it's not attractive enough?<br />3. If a company earn only a little, who will invest?<br /><br />Most of you question regarding Shenguan can be answered by some research report, or if you are really interested, go and web-surfing. e.g, I have also doubt on how many collagen casing players are there globally, and i search, there are many companies selling collagen casings, but please note that, they are reselling, not manufacturing!! After further study, I can only identify another 3 big players. Maybe there are other small players, I don't know, but it seems that there must be some entry barrier to keep so small amount of industry players, so I further study and get the answer.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3301536840960275863.post-34293294989488293942010-09-29T11:12:54.780+08:002010-09-29T11:12:54.780+08:00I'm also working in the finance sector, so I h...I'm also working in the finance sector, so I have some idea about the issue between Macquarie, BBG ,Deloitte and Mr. Nick Ng. What happen is shortly after the failure of listing, Macquarie requested to redeem the pre-IPO investment, Deloitte resigned as auditors and Mr. Nick Ng left the company. <br /><br />I think the problem is not the due-diligence or audit work. The problem is the business model. If you invest in any company involving a distributing channel, u'll have the same problem. What does it mean distributing channel, it means your product is selling to distributor, not end user, such as coke cola selling to supermarket. So, can u tell the identity of every distributor, are they absolutely not a related party, how can u tell? U can check it through legal search, interview, but how can you know that the distributor is not control by someone, which in turn control by another one. I can tell u that, even in those listed company, it happen. So,if you don't trust this model, don't invest in most of the retail company listed, unless they run their own stores. That means you have no need to read the news of most of the retail companies any more.<br /><br />Due-diligence is not a god-process, it can only tell most of the things are not wrong, or there are no concrete evidences that the things are wrong. Everyone can make a wrong decision, a wrong investment, so as Macquarie, Deloitte and Mr. Nick Ng. Same as anyone reading this forum, did u make a wrong decision before? One wrong decision doesn't need to put them into hell.<br /><br />If your focus are Macquarie, Deloitte and Mr. Ng, and never invest in those companies that are related to them, seems the logic is not sound enough. Focus on the fundamental.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3301536840960275863.post-39646744944052128112010-09-05T21:09:53.799+08:002010-09-05T21:09:53.799+08:00麥格里是神冠的保薦人。麥格里是神冠的保薦人。Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3301536840960275863.post-81974621643866027812010-09-05T21:08:16.202+08:002010-09-05T21:08:16.202+08:00http://www.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/20...http://www.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/20090930/00829_644311/C116.pdf<br /><br />另外,根據招股書,麥格里是在神冠沒有持股,為何要佈局?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3301536840960275863.post-46524217570530211902010-09-05T21:03:30.369+08:002010-09-05T21:03:30.369+08:00這個是小弟的錯誤,對不起,不過我是指「不能減持股權至低於控股權比例,又或是發行新股集資」,不是減持股...這個是小弟的錯誤,對不起,不過我是指「不能減持股權至低於控股權比例,又或是發行新股集資」,不是減持股票呢。<br /><br />這條條例是出於據上市條例第10章7.01及7.02條。Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3301536840960275863.post-17607565157108281042010-09-03T15:54:48.960+08:002010-09-03T15:54:48.960+08:00hi 匿名者,謝謝查證及釋疑,我相信此查證會令很多有貨在手的安心好多。
如果朋友可以與麥佳理的職員...hi 匿名者,謝謝查證及釋疑,我相信此查證會令很多有貨在手的安心好多。<br /><br />如果朋友可以與麥佳理的職員聯繫,其實我有一個問題很想請求代問:在安排真優美上市的“長期”過程中,既然麥格理安排吳先生進駐並擔任CFO,不知道有沒有察覺高寶綠色或者真優美的帳目有沒有問題?其職責是協助“美化”真優美的帳目,還是以投資者代理人的角色,監察真優美的帳目?<br /><br />這是我作為小散戶想知道的問題,如果可以代問,感激不盡。偉哥https://www.blogger.com/profile/08277235755471085935noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3301536840960275863.post-40774013605210453252010-09-03T15:38:43.169+08:002010-09-03T15:38:43.169+08:00大家好,因為在下持有神冠不小的數目,看完各位的討論後,便請Macquarie的服務人員聯繫位於上海的...大家好,因為在下持有神冠不小的數目,看完各位的討論後,便請Macquarie的服務人員聯繫位於上海的分析師詢問相關問題。 我想...大家可能有點誤會了。 經查證,當初Nick Ng擔任真優美的CFO,是因為Macquarie的PE group有真優美的持股,故派任Nick Ng進駐。Nick Ng並不是高寶綠色的人,也沒經手高寶綠色相關事項,而是Macquarie派來的人。 而這次Nick Ng進駐神冠也是Macquarie的佈局...所以問題並不在Nick Ng這個人身上,請大家參考。Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3301536840960275863.post-40987202205950941892010-09-02T09:05:07.160+08:002010-09-02T09:05:07.160+08:00hi greatsoup, 新股上市後半年,大股東是可以減持套現,但是要維持控股股東地位。hi greatsoup, 新股上市後半年,大股東是可以減持套現,但是要維持控股股東地位。偉哥https://www.blogger.com/profile/08277235755471085935noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3301536840960275863.post-28841191977247923332010-09-02T07:53:39.388+08:002010-09-02T07:53:39.388+08:00有人指出,上市大約一年沒有減持股票及發行新股,但根據上市條例,上市一年內不能減持股權至低於控股權比例...有人指出,上市大約一年沒有減持股票及發行新股,但根據上市條例,上市一年內不能減持股權至低於控股權比例,又或是發行新股集資。Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3301536840960275863.post-22633714515239043452010-09-01T03:34:34.298+08:002010-09-01T03:34:34.298+08:00455的往績及基本因素達不到自己的要求,故不在觀察名單內,因此認識不多,無法給予意見。455的往績及基本因素達不到自己的要求,故不在觀察名單內,因此認識不多,無法給予意見。偉哥https://www.blogger.com/profile/08277235755471085935noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3301536840960275863.post-90638992315088356422010-09-01T02:34:04.416+08:002010-09-01T02:34:04.416+08:00Japanese starts to control share of 829....Japanese starts to control share of 829....Geesehttp://(選用)noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3301536840960275863.post-35661349395304565432010-09-01T01:58:33.120+08:002010-09-01T01:58:33.120+08:00455 偉哥點睇?455 偉哥點睇?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3301536840960275863.post-61046516822730616382010-09-01T00:43:23.553+08:002010-09-01T00:43:23.553+08:00偉哥,我都中過355...又話核能核原料,百分比及絕對值輸到pk...最近隻1717又high,今天...偉哥,我都中過355...又話核能核原料,百分比及絕對值輸到pk...最近隻1717又high,今天cut loss.幸好風險控制好,大圍無事!我不勞氣,只是不應以偏概全!<br /><br />謝謝!DTwatchesCOM DT中古手錶https://www.blogger.com/profile/17857736658441246180noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3301536840960275863.post-62206589210359897852010-09-01T00:30:51.172+08:002010-09-01T00:30:51.172+08:00多謝偉哥提及關於大型基金持股參考一事!股票市場及每間公司都極複雜!好多因素係分析時是被忽略了或之後有...多謝偉哥提及關於大型基金持股參考一事!股票市場及每間公司都極複雜!好多因素係分析時是被忽略了或之後有變!大型基金亦不是長勝的!最近例子就係澳優1717,富達大師安東尼搬埋黎香港都中招,不斷增持...佢地無錯知道內需股正,但唔知道內地人已開始唔買中國制奶...話知您奶源係外地0Y!!<br /><br />查實829真係好特別!分析829好簡單!因為:<br />1)不用擔心銷量,因供不應求關係,基本上佢造幾多賣幾多!<br />2)腸衣市價平穩,約RMB0.45一米,大部分合約年頭已簽好!<br />3)大型客戶如雙匯雨潤對品質衛生很高要求,生產一米香腸最大成本係肉及漆加劑,腸衣的RMB0.45只佔好小比例!所以需求彈性極低!要CUT成本有排都未到腸衣!<br />4)原料牛二層皮用途窄,買家少,價格亦穩定!牛主有人要佢D牛2皮,等於垃圾賣倒錢!開心還來不及,那敢加價!<br />所以估計神棍業績好簡單,睇下佢有幾多條生產線運作,產能幾多就大概知佢賺幾多!但增加的生產線於每年不同時間啟用,所以估計有點靠估!要多留意日常有關報導!不過,829香港就無人悉,係廣西梧州係響噹噹名字,故梧州日報及梧州電視常有關於829的報導!<br />根據今年中期報導集團腸衣的總銷售量為10.51億米====>每股賺RMB0.1339!148(至今已完成,至2010年底會有18條新做好,全部166條)條生產線全面運作產能約33億米====>估每股全年賺RMB0.42(約HKD0.48)!打個斷估折扣當HKD0.45!幾多倍PE,PEG就由市場決定!<br />以上方法真係流於簡單白痴,但我就用這方法估中期業績每股賺HKD0.185(實際係HKD0.153)及派息至少HKD0.054(實際係HKD0.06)!<br /><br />148條生產線就33億米,0甘166條自己賺下......<br /><br />比起分析其他公司,又要睇市場變化又要睇原料價格又要睇政策或收購合併新項目,829真係來得簡單!<br />註:以上分析單純老散斷估!個人已IPO持股及4.10;4.7增持!買賣風險自負!DTwatchesCOM DT中古手錶https://www.blogger.com/profile/17857736658441246180noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3301536840960275863.post-37785647871607961722010-08-31T23:56:40.824+08:002010-08-31T23:56:40.824+08:00hi DTLK, 不要太勞氣。我相信你未曾買過爆煲股,所以不會有我的體會。我曾經中過招,買泰興光學全...hi DTLK, 不要太勞氣。我相信你未曾買過爆煲股,所以不會有我的體會。我曾經中過招,買泰興光學全數變牆紙,但不論大股東或核數師,原來全數不用負上刑責,亦見不到有人被罰;買946還不知道可以拿回多少錢,一隻上市3個月的新股原來做假數,証監都是要等人告發才知,你就知道香港的監管制度是多麼的寬鬆、荒謬,難怪大鱷喜歡在香港“搵食”。<br /><br />我不是說所有上市公司的帳目都不可信,但一間上市公司的CFO上一份工原來是擔任老X公司的CFO,還差些成功上市,哪叫我如何可以相信該公司?<br /><br />投資路上每個人都有不同的看法是必然的,所以大家各自表達完觀點就算,不是一定要對方相信你的觀點是正確,正如此時此刻有不少人相信682是好公司,但有更多的人相信682是造假一樣,不用爭論太多,相信的話可以真金白銀買,不信的話可以忽略不理,反正市場上又不是只得682一間公司。829亦一樣,我不相信但你相信,其實沒有衝突,我等散戶的言論根本不會影響到股價分毫。你可以從中獲取巨利固然可喜,我亦沒有損失,大家可以按自己的方法在市場賺錢。<br /><br />共勉之。偉哥https://www.blogger.com/profile/08277235755471085935noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3301536840960275863.post-33779486564786203092010-08-31T23:54:31.820+08:002010-08-31T23:54:31.820+08:00我的選股心得就是將唔輸的機率減低.所以當我睇少隻股就唔代表該股唔好,可以代表我唔想博,可以代表我睇錯...我的選股心得就是將唔輸的機率減低.所以當我睇少隻股就唔代表該股唔好,可以代表我唔想博,可以代表我睇錯的.<br />買賣股票"唔輸"就會贏.<br />每個投資人都有他的選股票方法,其實我都想你賺錢.fourwonghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10236211466731458760noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3301536840960275863.post-31887994855405111942010-08-31T23:25:52.527+08:002010-08-31T23:25:52.527+08:00順帶一提,中人壽都係基礎投資人!!本人已持股,加上由IPO至今一直增持及一直跟蹤公司資料及營運狀況,...順帶一提,中人壽都係基礎投資人!!本人已持股,加上由IPO至今一直增持及一直跟蹤公司資料及營運狀況,對此股有一定認知,甚至天真一些有點感情!!<br />所有股票,要搵一個或以上唔買既理由有幾難!<br />內銀集資潮兼地方融資問題,地方政府可能唔認數!<br />內房阿爺打完一鑊又一鑊,永無出頭天!<br />加工廠仲斃,人工上,原料上,死路一條!<br />資源股,仲死,開採完就得個桔,資產值係零!<br />科技股無運行,今日高科技,明日流流地!<br />平就好咩,今日平明天更平既大把!<br />如果懷疑香港上市公司公報既料係流既,0甘就咩股都唔使買啦!DTwatchesCOM DT中古手錶https://www.blogger.com/profile/17857736658441246180noreply@blogger.com