2010年8月10日 星期二

莫非本月真的會高位結算?

以下是港交所星期一早上公佈的恒生指數期貨市場佔有率數據(http://www.hkex.com.hk/chi/stat/dmstat/sharedata_c.htm):

Week 26 Jul-30 Jul 10 Week 2 Aug-6 Aug 10
Top 10 Exchange Participants' Long Open Interest (Contracts,End period) 73,247 91,709
% of Market Open Interest* 88.39% 88.50%
Participant 1 16.38% 23.94%
Participant 2 15.47% 13.72%
Participant 3 13.57% 13.57%
Participant 4 11.65% 11.85%
Participant 5 11.26% 9.33%
Participant 6 7.65% 4.81%
Participant 7 4.20% 3.63%
Participant 8 3.49% 2.98%
Participant 9 2.73% 2.66%
Participant 10 1.99% 2.02%

Top 10 Exchange Participants' Short Open Interest (Contracts, End-period) 64,193 78,259

% of Market Open Interest* 77.46% 75.78%
Participant 1 13.96% 15.00%
Participant 2 13.64% 12.25%
Participant 3 12.55% 11.98%
Participant 4 6.90% 6.77%
Participant 5 6.25% 6.56%
Participant 6 5.71% 5.17%
Participant 7 5.47% 5.00%
Participant 8 4.71% 4.53%
Participant 9 4.42% 4.27%
Participant 10 3.86% 4.25%

簡單解讀:截至上星期五收市止,未平倉期指合約中,10大期指好倉共有91,709張,佔未平倉合約的88.5%,當中最大單一好倉佔23.94%;10大期指淡倉共有78,259張,佔未平倉合約的75.78%,當中最大單一淡倉佔15%。以上數據說明,大戶持有好倉的比例是遠高於淡倉,相反而言,散戶持有淡倉比例是遠高於好倉。

以上數據反映大戶看好比例較高,而散戶看淡比例較高。當然,期指尚有許多其它用途,例如作為對沖工具、鎖定回報/入貨價位等,所以期指數據並不一定可以準確預測後市,但有時極為懸殊的數據則甚具參考價值。

1 則留言:

  1. 這網誌的留言系統好像有些問題,有朋友留了言,但不見顯示出來,自己的留言亦無法顯示。

    朋友留言如下:

    "http://money.softbath.net/stock/open_interest_report.php

    it does look like it at this moment but my guess is it cant last till the end of the month. 5 , 941, 13 alot of the big blue chip made new highs already. The chinese banks earning coming out in the 3rd week. Afterwards, i dont see any incentive for the market to go up further."

    誠如上述朋友所言,我自己覺得大市只是月初已去到如此高位,升幅顯著,如果不先行調整的話,很難可以長升長有。我自己看法是大市在本月中旬會先行調整,下試21000點支持,然後月底有機會升上22000點。

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