tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3301536840960275863.post1595389182605668165..comments2024-03-24T23:08:33.909+08:00Comments on 偉哥投資手札: 中國動向(3818)的盈警 (續)偉哥http://www.blogger.com/profile/08277235755471085935noreply@blogger.comBlogger26125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3301536840960275863.post-78107697021887027872011-07-18T02:02:25.241+08:002011-07-18T02:02:25.241+08:00hi alex c.,理論上應該是不可以,因為這樣等同製造假象,誤導其他投資者;而且其大股東身份,不...hi alex c.,理論上應該是不可以,因為這樣等同製造假象,誤導其他投資者;而且其大股東身份,不論是增持好倉或淡倉都要申報,故先不說其同時增持及沽空是否犯法,其只要有增加淡倉的話也要申報的。<br /><br />hi terence,不一定要買3818,也一再強調這不是推介。在注碼受控的情況下,買入3818是在看到風險的同時,也見到機遇。或許我一直都是比較樂觀的人,也具備承擔一定風險的能力(所以我期權倉長期都是做短倉為主),故每每見到股市大跌或某些有跟進的個股大跌,都見到我走去撈底,這點很多與我共同作戰多年的網友一定清楚,也不是今時今日才突然有此做法。不敢說每次大跌撈底都一定羸,但平均而言是獲利不俗,所以也長期維持此做法,沒打算改變。偉哥https://www.blogger.com/profile/08277235755471085935noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3301536840960275863.post-40003541282838269432011-07-17T21:51:41.765+08:002011-07-17T21:51:41.765+08:00其實...真係有需要買3818這股?其實...真係有需要買3818這股?Terencehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12154138620220311856noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3301536840960275863.post-33583134639742455312011-07-13T04:19:44.410+08:002011-07-13T04:19:44.410+08:00偉哥你好,知道你忙,有個問題請教一下。
7月12日,1068雨潤成交,6億元左右,沽空達3億元,沽空...偉哥你好,知道你忙,有個問題請教一下。<br />7月12日,1068雨潤成交,6億元左右,沽空達3億元,沽空比例離奇高。<br />當晚公司宣佈改日股東增持1.5億元股份。<br /><br />請問 香港的證券條例可以 一手增持,一手沽空同一隻股份嗎?個人認為沽空如此之大是因股東為增持做短期對沖行為。如果扣掉股東的沽空1.5億元,那麼12日的沽空就是1.5億元左右。<br /><br />請偉哥指點一下謝謝。<br /><br />希望偉哥日進萬金,永遠這麼聰明可愛<br /><br />Alex C.alexhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00344055072016960986noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3301536840960275863.post-45079331853404427362011-07-12T05:04:10.572+08:002011-07-12T05:04:10.572+08:00似乎3818很看好自己,怎麽快就出來回購.
oman似乎3818很看好自己,怎麽快就出來回購.<br /><br /><br />omanoman524https://www.blogger.com/profile/01600751719071516003noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3301536840960275863.post-31510233773244871272011-07-11T11:46:11.156+08:002011-07-11T11:46:11.156+08:00hi oman, 當年303由高位大跌9成,慘烈情況比現在3818尤有過之。如果3818跌至毫子股,...hi oman, 當年303由高位大跌9成,慘烈情況比現在3818尤有過之。如果3818跌至毫子股,相信大股東也有機會增持,甚至公司也會回購。偉哥https://www.blogger.com/profile/08277235755471085935noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3301536840960275863.post-13514466176862994722011-07-11T05:01:33.960+08:002011-07-11T05:01:33.960+08:00偉哥,
睇見"以往最經典的例子是現今的工業股股王,有興趣的話可以翻看其歷史,當年曾經落難...偉哥,<br /><br />睇見"以往最經典的例子是現今的工業股股王,有興趣的話可以翻看其歷史,當年曾經落難,股價跌9成。"唔清楚是否講303,<br />有些不同是,303在3蚊邊黃主席是大手增持.<br /><br />omanoman524https://www.blogger.com/profile/01600751719071516003noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3301536840960275863.post-14746924999878063092011-07-11T01:20:04.694+08:002011-07-11T01:20:04.694+08:00Dear wai gor
唔該哂84 , 444既分析,444 唔係睇得好明,我聽日會做下功課印證...Dear wai gor<br /><br />唔該哂84 , 444既分析,444 唔係睇得好明,我聽日會做下功課印證下偉哥所講既撥備數據,當增進知識,唔會再買444了 XD<br /><br />84 7倍PE ???!!!嘩,我諗高位入既散戶聽完個心會沉一沉 XD<br /><br />偉哥你講得對,5%不算多,小弟非常欣賞你分散投資既風格,因分散持有不同股票數量就會多,難以管理,要有好高管理能力既人才做到!<br /><br />小弟試了一排,有點吃力,現開始集中一些較有信心的,易於管理,7~8%左右,但風險跟組合波幅高了不少 :(<br /><br />冇計,能力有限不能兼顧太多股票<br /><br />偉哥你係得既!<br /><br />kkAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3301536840960275863.post-2803134734539245682011-07-11T00:49:54.591+08:002011-07-11T00:49:54.591+08:00Dear Wai gor
衷心多謝咁詳盡既分析.
打算繼續持有, 共患難.Dear Wai gor<br /><br />衷心多謝咁詳盡既分析. <br />打算繼續持有, 共患難.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3301536840960275863.post-80058023784963148332011-07-11T00:37:54.600+08:002011-07-11T00:37:54.600+08:00Agree with 偉哥, my experience was that in 2005,I ha...Agree with 偉哥, my experience was that in 2005,I had X,000 shares 1919 at $4﹒25. Those shares dropped to a lowest of $2.55 some time later. But in 2007, I sold all the shares at around $40. A profit of about 841%. <br /><br />For 3818, if you drop the 0.22b repurchased amount. The profit % is pretty the same as last year. My view is that a drop of the company revenue will be a defer of future purchasing power when the inventory dry out. The future growth will return and is expected to be in line with the growth of personal income in China.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3301536840960275863.post-31843294105767611232011-07-11T00:33:22.349+08:002011-07-11T00:33:22.349+08:00自己連續寫了兩篇中國動向的分析,不是想推介大家在股價插水時撈底,而是因為自己持有此股,所以會比較深入...自己連續寫了兩篇中國動向的分析,不是想推介大家在股價插水時撈底,而是因為自己持有此股,所以會比較深入探討這次的盈警及公佈的數據,而既然已做了那麼多功課,將其公開與其它有持有此股的網友參考,也是舉手之勞而已。<br /><br />至於是否繼續持有等待或趁低吸納或沽出止蝕,每人的情況不同,要自行判斷、決定。偉哥https://www.blogger.com/profile/08277235755471085935noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3301536840960275863.post-13728233646563950752011-07-11T00:24:55.859+08:002011-07-11T00:24:55.859+08:00hi fung,中國的官員很講究面子及管治威信,既然中央多名高官包括溫家寶都公開說通脹已受控,那如果...hi fung,中國的官員很講究面子及管治威信,既然中央多名高官包括溫家寶都公開說通脹已受控,那如果通脹還不受控的話,即時其言而無信,等同當面打了其一巴掌。如果你相信中國的數據是"人造"的,那你應該要相信中國的通脹已受控、已見頂。<br /><br />當然實際上通脹是否已受控就不得而知。偉哥https://www.blogger.com/profile/08277235755471085935noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3301536840960275863.post-2186897825185173782011-07-11T00:20:04.223+08:002011-07-11T00:20:04.223+08:00hi kk,其實5%不算多,有很多人動輒用3-4成資金買一隻股票。3818回購的存貨,可以想像到肯定...hi kk,其實5%不算多,有很多人動輒用3-4成資金買一隻股票。3818回購的存貨,可以想像到肯定是舊款式的貨,在自己眼中是"死貨"。自己公司不時會賤價、如原價的3-4成價錢出售這類死貨,對新品種的銷售影響甚微,因為買的人都知道其買的是過時的貨,也知道新貨不會如此便宜。<br /><br />至於84,扣除物業重估收益,每股核心盈利約12.5仙。由於其負債較重,有別於大部份零售股持有大量淨現金,所以其估值理應低於其餘零售股。自己覺得其合理估值只應介乎8-9倍市盈率之間,即目標價約1-1.12元之間,故自己只會等股價跌至7倍市盈率時才考慮。<br /><br />444就暫不用再看。表面上業績很不錯,估值也不貴,但如果細心看業績,其實下半年業績很差。上半年為存貨做了9百萬元的撥備,尚有盈利3300萬元;以全年計,沒有為存貨做任何撥備之餘,尚有2100萬元的撥備撥回,如果細心計算,即下半年實際上盈利不會超過2000萬元,而全年盈利實際上只有5800萬元左右。另外,多年來影響其業績的匯兌虧損仍無法解決,令每年業績都較波動,難以估算其盈利,故自己建議此股短期內不用再考慮。偉哥https://www.blogger.com/profile/08277235755471085935noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3301536840960275863.post-6085465077243412952011-07-10T23:51:48.280+08:002011-07-10T23:51:48.280+08:00hi abjj,以往最經典的例子是現今的工業股股王,有興趣的話可以翻看其歷史,當年曾經落難,股價跌9...hi abjj,以往最經典的例子是現今的工業股股王,有興趣的話可以翻看其歷史,當年曾經落難,股價跌9成。我曾經低於3元買過,但當年的我根本沒有資金、本錢,也沒有耐性去等,所以錯過其後的大茶飯。此外,179也算是一隻浴火重生的股票,管理層也是在業務出現問題後,大刀闊斧去重組,以致前兩年的業績很差,但今日可算是苦盡甘來。<br /><br />當然我舉這些成功的例子並不是想說明3818的改革一定成功,也不知道要等多久才有起色,但自己覺得在其落難之時、估值賤如地底泥,以有限的資金、例如不超過組合5%資金去博,是有值博率的。偉哥https://www.blogger.com/profile/08277235755471085935noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3301536840960275863.post-44309907167680719252011-07-10T23:11:26.632+08:002011-07-10T23:11:26.632+08:00Dear wai gor
請不要把 3818 增持到組合的5%,頂多3%就好了
買股買前景好的,...Dear wai gor<br /><br />請不要把 3818 增持到組合的5%,頂多3%就好了<br /><br />買股買前景好的,硬要買前景差撈底不是不可,但注碼應細,5% 小弟覺有點多!!!加上3818 清倉大平賣,消費者還願意走進店裡用原價買嗎?<br /><br />而其實用回成本價計,佔組合比例應會更高,只是賬面上變小了<br /><br />另,想請教,84 , 444 業績不差,想買回,你覺得乜價位買入才有值搏率呢?現在兩者PE已是9倍或以下呢<br /><br />唔該哂!<br /><br />kkAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3301536840960275863.post-65363379508226255772011-07-10T22:42:15.861+08:002011-07-10T22:42:15.861+08:00我覺得關鍵是kappa這個品牌能否挽回在消費者心目中的地位,如果品牌吸引力還是在走下坡路,那是怎麼都...我覺得關鍵是kappa這個品牌能否挽回在消費者心目中的地位,如果品牌吸引力還是在走下坡路,那是怎麼都很難!zorrohttp://(選用)noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3301536840960275863.post-45888336446859777052011-07-10T22:23:43.098+08:002011-07-10T22:23:43.098+08:00雖沒有持有3818,但十分留意偉哥你認真的分析,獲益良多,多謝!
JK雖沒有持有3818,但十分留意偉哥你認真的分析,獲益良多,多謝!<br /><br />JKAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3301536840960275863.post-78662762029719349322011-07-10T22:11:39.561+08:002011-07-10T22:11:39.561+08:00雖然我沒持有#3818,但看過你的分析讓我學到你的一點分析方法.無限感激,多謝你!偉哥.
牛牛雖然我沒持有#3818,但看過你的分析讓我學到你的一點分析方法.無限感激,多謝你!偉哥.<br /><br />牛牛Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3301536840960275863.post-46663160701454830982011-07-10T21:57:55.193+08:002011-07-10T21:57:55.193+08:00偉哥以往有過類似3818要先守一大輪劣勢然後才贏大錢的股票嗎? 分享一下啊! 真的很需要耐性偉哥以往有過類似3818要先守一大輪劣勢然後才贏大錢的股票嗎? 分享一下啊! 真的很需要耐性abjjhttp://(選用)noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3301536840960275863.post-54481962575682897302011-07-10T20:46:06.750+08:002011-07-10T20:46:06.750+08:00Thanks for your analysis!
Brother Wai
PeterThanks for your analysis!<br />Brother Wai<br /><br /><br />PeterAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3301536840960275863.post-11840351310953404682011-07-10T20:15:57.738+08:002011-07-10T20:15:57.738+08:00多謝! kk多謝! kkAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3301536840960275863.post-29593394426246522222011-07-10T17:55:43.377+08:002011-07-10T17:55:43.377+08:00多謝分享!
Marco多謝分享!<br />MarcoAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3301536840960275863.post-49759860039996236302011-07-10T17:28:35.704+08:002011-07-10T17:28:35.704+08:00Thanks for ur effort, 偉哥Thanks for ur effort, 偉哥Peterhttp://(選用)noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3301536840960275863.post-78372162113862218172011-07-10T14:59:29.093+08:002011-07-10T14:59:29.093+08:00Thanks for sharing!Thanks for sharing!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3301536840960275863.post-52657484621288473922011-07-10T14:13:05.533+08:002011-07-10T14:13:05.533+08:00偉哥,用左咁多寶貴時間,做左咁多複雜的數據分析3818,而我地又沒有付出過任何東西就可以得到這些資料...偉哥,用左咁多寶貴時間,做左咁多複雜的數據分析3818,而我地又沒有付出過任何東西就可以得到這些資料,我只可以講句真心話"感激"多謝你偉哥。kinghttp://(選用)noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3301536840960275863.post-40063130675146440452011-07-10T10:02:00.017+08:002011-07-10T10:02:00.017+08:00人工的漲幅不見得比cpi細人工的漲幅不見得比cpi細Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com